Reconfiguração das políticas públicas na Bahia: uma análise sob a ótica orçamentária 2016-2023

Abstract

This study analyzes the reconfiguration of public policies in the state of Bahia, Brazil, between 2016 and 2023 based on subnational budget execution data. The main objective is to identify how budgetary priorities were reallocated across functions, programs and territories, in the context of fiscal constraints and political choices, taking the 2016–2019 and 2020–2023 multiannual plans as the planning framework. The analysis applies the diagnostic typology proposed by Couto And Rech (2023), adapted to the state level, classifying functions and programs as clear supplementation, partial dismantling, active dismantling or neutral, according to the behaviour of initial appropriations, updated appropriations, executed expenditures and their relative shares in the final budget. A territorial dimension is introduced through the average participation of Bahia’s identity territories in executed expenditures, which makes it possible to assess whether aggregate budget expansion is accompanied by spatial deconcentration of public spending. The purpose of the study is not to establish causal relationships between expenditure and social outcomes, but to identify patterns of budget reorientation that reveal the reconfiguration of state public policies over the period. The results point to a structural strengthening of education and, to a lesser extent, of socio- productive inclusion programs, alongside the compression of social, environmental and rural policies and a strong reliance on budget supplementation and public–private partnerships in strategic areas. The evidence also shows a relative decline in the share of the Salvador metropolitan area and a rise in several interior territories, driven by educational, infrastructure and water supply investments. Overall, the state budget appears to operate as a mechanism that recenters resources on a narrow set of transversal axes while leaving key social rights and basic infrastructure agendas underfunded in historically vulnerable regions.