Os desafios da política externa brasileira para o Mercosul diante da ascensão chinesa (2013-2022)

Abstract

This master's thesis analyzes Brazilian foreign policy in relation to Mercosur from 2013 to 2022, taking into account the impacts of China's rise in the international system. It is based on the hypothesis that China's growing presence in global economic dynamics has directly or indirectly conditioned the approaches adopted by Brazil towards the regional bloc, especially in the commercial dimensions of integration. The study adopts the hypothetical-deductive method and is based on a literature review, analysis of official speeches and documents produced by Brazilian foreign policy bodies, such as Itamaraty and the Presidency of the Republic. The analysis is based on two fundamental foreign policy variables: autonomy and international insertion. It argues that Brazil's growing dependence on commodity exports to China and the fragmentation of regional flows have contributed to the weakening of its commitment to the South American integrationist project. It is observed that Brazil's actions in Mercosur have been guided by immediate commercial interests, with a detachment from long-term institutional and political agendas. The research also examines how internal changes in Brazilian governments have influenced this trajectory, in light of the ideological diversity between the mandates of Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro. Finally, this work contributes to the field of International Relations by offering a critical perspective on how China’s rise has reshaped Brazilian foreign policy, particularly in the context of structural dependency and the challenges of regional integration.