Abstract:
This study analyzes the reconfiguration of public policies in the state of Bahia, Brazil,
between 2016 and 2023 based on subnational budget execution data. The main objective is to
identify how budgetary priorities were reallocated across functions, programs and territories,
in the context of fiscal constraints and political choices, taking the 2016–2019 and 2020–2023
multiannual plans as the planning framework. The analysis applies the diagnostic typology
proposed by Couto And Rech (2023), adapted to the state level, classifying functions and
programs as clear supplementation, partial dismantling, active dismantling or neutral,
according to the behaviour of initial appropriations, updated appropriations, executed
expenditures and their relative shares in the final budget. A territorial dimension is introduced
through the average participation of Bahia’s identity territories in executed expenditures,
which makes it possible to assess whether aggregate budget expansion is accompanied by
spatial deconcentration of public spending. The purpose of the study is not to establish causal
relationships between expenditure and social outcomes, but to identify patterns of budget
reorientation that reveal the reconfiguration of state public policies over the period. The
results point to a structural strengthening of education and, to a lesser extent, of socio-
productive inclusion programs, alongside the compression of social, environmental and rural
policies and a strong reliance on budget supplementation and public–private partnerships in
strategic areas. The evidence also shows a relative decline in the share of the Salvador
metropolitan area and a rise in several interior territories, driven by educational, infrastructure
and water supply investments. Overall, the state budget appears to operate as a mechanism
that recenters resources on a narrow set of transversal axes while leaving key social rights and
basic infrastructure agendas underfunded in historically vulnerable regions.
