Lucros contábeis agregados refletem a inflação? um estudo do cenário brasileiro entre os anos de 2012 a 2020.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate whether the aggregate accounting earnings of firms in the Brazilian stock market (B3) have the ability to support predict inflation information. As it proposes to analyze aggregate accounting data, the research brings more empirical evidence to inflation from a perspective not yet explored by the national literature. Using as a methodological basis an adaptation of the process used by Shivakumar and Urcan (2017), the empirical research was carried out with the collection of accounting earning data, at the firm level, of companies listed on B3, during the period from the first quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2020 obtained from the Economática® database. Next, earning aggregation was performed using the arithmetic average (equal-weighted), weighted average (value-weighted) and direct aggregation techniques. The economic variables were obtained from the Time Series Generator System (SGS) of the Brazilian Central Bank, IBGE and Ipeadata. The Autoregressive Vector (VAR) was chosen as an econometric technique because it allows forecasts to be made, in addition to enabling the identification of the time and intensity of the inflation response to a shock to aggregate earnings. The evidence found showed that, in the Brazilian reality, aggregate accounting earnings are capable of influencing future inflation. The results found allow accounting information, at the aggregate level, to be used as instruments for analyzing the efficiency of public policies, as well as presenting empirical evidence that reinforces the importance of studies in macroaccounting.