Sustentabilidade em um mundo sob falha metabólica

Abstract

This study addresses global ecological crises through an integrative approach, focusing on two key aspects: human population and metabolic failure in agriculture. We explore the structural and sociometabolic roots of agricultural sustainability and argue that population control solutions, widely discussed in the literature, are insufficient and divert attention from the real causes of environmental problems. Global population growth is slowing, with fertility rates dropping significantly since 1990 and population stabilization projected for 2080. This undermines the notion that population size is the main driver of ecological degradation. Instead, we highlight the capitalist sociometabolic model as the true engine of environmental crises. This model, centered on unlimited economic growth and profit maximization, generates artificial consumption demands, overburdening ecosystems without necessarily improving human well-being. Moreover, we analyze metabolic failure in global agriculture, focusing on the disproportionate use of fertilizers relative to productivity gains. Data from 1961 to 2022 for six agricultural products in 211 countries show that increased agricultural productivity is increasingly reliant on chemical fertilizers, especially in countries of the so-called "Global South." This pattern leads to soil degradation, environmental contamination, and heightened socioeconomic inequalities, exacerbating risks to agricultural and global sustainability. We also emphasize the impact of disrupted natural nutrient cycles caused by the separation of rural and urban systems, which depletes agricultural soils and concentrates waste in cities, intensifying environmental and climate crises. In light of this, we propose solutions that transcend population control, focusing on systemic transformations. These solutions include transitioning to sustainable sociometabolic models, restoring natural nutrient flows between rural and urban areas, and adopting regenerative agricultural practices such as ecological intensification, which foster greater resilience and sustainability. In summary, this study challenges the traditional view that blames population growth for environmental crises and advocates a systemic approach to address them. By highlighting the detrimental effects of the capitalist sociometabolic model and metabolic failure in agriculture, we underscore the need for profound changes that integrate ecological balance, social justice, and agricultural sustainability. This transition requires a break from current paradigms and the adoption of solutions rooted in cooperation, equity, and respect for planetary boundaries.