Crisis en la Zona Euro: perspectiva de un impago en la periferia y la salida de la moneda única común

Abstract

The indebtedness of Spain, Portugal and Greece has grown in recent years primarily because of the private sector. Unable to compete successfully within the Eurozone, the private sector of peripheral countries has accumulated domestic and foreign debt. Aggregate debt – both public and private - poses severe problems for the banks of core countries, which also face liquidity problems because of funding dollar assets with euro liabilities. The policies adopted by the EU aim at rescuing banks, while facilitating the borrowing of peripheral states. However, a simple analysis of aggregate demand shows that the ensuing austerity is likely to lead to recession. In this light, the paper discusses the option of default and exit from the Eurozone for peripheral countries. This strategy offers the prospect of stronger and more equitable growth, but only if it takes place at the initiative of the borrower. It must also be accompanied by a programme of reforms that reverses the neoliberal thrust of current policy.