Análise dos impactos da crise do subprime e da pandemia da Covid-19 no comportamento do Ibovespa

Abstract

The 21st century has been marked by two major crises of global proportions and unique dynamics: the 2008 subprime crisis, which exposed not only the fragility of the real estate market but also that of the U.S. financial system, and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, an exogenous public health shock that brought the global economy to a standstill. This study aims to analyze the impacts of these two episodes of extreme economic stress on the performance of the Ibovespa and to draw a comparison with the world’s most relevant stock index, the S&P 500 of the United States of America. The theoretical framework adopted is the hypothesis of subordinated financialization, used to demonstrate that in both crises, global instability triggered intense capital flight movements that disproportionately affected the Brazilian stock market. The methodology is based on a literature review and an analysis of historical market data, examining the behavior of the stock indices between 2007 and 2023. The results indicate that although the initial shock generated similar declines in both indices in each episode, their recovery dynamics diverged. Between 2008 and 2009, the Ibovespa experienced a sharp rebound, driven by its concentration in commodities and by coordinated global stimulus measures that boosted commodity prices, while the S&P 500 exhibited a more delayed recovery. However, the 2020 crisis showed that while the S&P experienced a V-shaped recovery supported by the technology sector and by the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the Ibovespa faced a slow rebound, penalized this time by its high sectoral concentration in commodities—an industry severely affected during the pandemic crisis. It is concluded, therefore, that the extreme volatility of the Ibovespa during periods of global crisis is largely explained by Brazil’s subordinated insertion into the international economy, rather than by domestic macroeconomic conditions or by the institutional quality of the firms composing the index.