Efeitos do programa Pé-de-Meia no ensino médio das escolas públicas brasileiras

Abstract

High school dropout and low student engagement are central challenges for reducing educational inequalities in Brazil. In this context, the Federal Government launched the Pé-de-Meia Program in 2024 as a financial-educational incentive aimed at promoting school retention and academic progression among low-income students. This study aims to assess the causal effect of the program on indicators of school attendance, engagement, and subjective well-being among students in Brazil’s public school system. To this end, we use data from the Equidade.Info Project – Wave 10, administered to public school students, which includes information on program participation, socioeconomic background, perceptions of school, and attendance indicators. The empirical strategy employs the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to estimate the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT), accounting for data constraints and the need to approximate eligibility through proxy variables. The results indicate that Pé-de-Meia yields consistent causal effects in reducing absenteeism, although statistical significance varies across the metrics analyzed. In addition, complementary evidence suggests positive effects on subjective well-being and psychological engagement, indicating that the program may also operate through motivational channels. These findings reinforce the potential of conditional financial incentives as a tool to promote school retention, aligning with both national and international literature on conditional cash transfer programs. While the study acknowledges limitations related to counterfactual construction and sample size, it contributes by providing initial evidence on the mechanisms through which Pé-de-Meia generates impact, offering insights for future evaluations and for the improvement of education policies structured around monetary incentives.