Futuro esperado da atenção ao câncer: um estudo de technology foresight baseado em expectativas de especialistas

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to generate qualified information about technologies that may be relevant to cancer care in the next 30 years (2017-2047). We used technology foresight framework to deepen concepts and incorporate methods for future technologies research. The research focused on technologies developed from biotechnological tools (or biopharmaceuticals). For the identification of future technologies, a method was developed from the consultation of editorials of journals specialized in oncology. This method allowed the selection of nine technologies with the potential to have a future impact on cancer care. In addition, a method of consulting a large number of experts was developed from e-mail from authors of indexed articles in the Thomson Reuters’ Web of Science database. In this survey, more than 83,000 cancer specialists were invited to report, through a Web Survey, their expectations about the future of cancer care. The questionnaire was answered by 2,408 specialists - of whom, 1,348 auto declared themselves experts with high knowledge in the subject. The results presented here refer to the answers of high knowledge specialists. These experts pointed out that antibody-related therapies, molecular imaging, and tumor delivery systems are the technologies most likely to be used in cancer care for the next thirty years. Among the reasons pointed out for the choice of these technologies, we highlight, mainly, the improvement in the prognosis of the disease and the greater reliability in the diagnoses. Among the technologies with a low expectation of success, knowledge and scientific barriers were highlighted as the main obstacles to its development.