Duração do desemprego na região metropolitana de Salvador: mensuração e análise

Abstract

This paper analyzes the average complete duration of unemployment in the Salvador Metropolitan Region (RMS) based on data from the Employment and Unemployment Survey. To this end, we use a new methodology that allows the use of cross-sectional data to estimate this duration based on the calculation of the probability of continued unemployment. This methodology has been presented in the works of Baker (1992b), Corak and Heisz (1995), and Sider (1985). The main focus of the paper is to analyze the distinction between average complete durations (stationary and non-stationary) and the average incomplete duration of unemployment, as presented in official statistics. We also discuss the existence of heterogeneity between durations and the main determinants of unemployment. The results show that non-stationary indicators more accurately describe labor market conditions. We also observe heterogeneity in unemployment durations among different social groups in the Salvador Metropolitan Region. Finally, it is observed that increases in unemployment are fundamentally reflected in the increase in durations.