Determinantes da disseminação e mortalidade da Covid-19: uma análise em cross-section dos bairros de Salvador

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused significant losses in lives and health, in addition to negatively impacting job creation, income generation, and the sustainability of public finances. This study seeks to assess whether population density, the intensity of economic activity, neighborhood effects, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are determinants of Covid-19 contagion, mortality, and case fatality. Using cross-sectional data from neighborhoods in the municipality of Salvador from 2020 to 2021, quantile regression, robust regression, and spatial analysis models were estimated. The results indicate that neighborhoods with more intense economic activity and a predominantly Black male population with low education and income have higher levels of Covid-19 infection and severity. The predominance of elderly individuals in the population was relevant for the incidence and mortality rates, while neighborhood effects were only significant for the case fatality rate.