Índice de criminalidade ponderado : violência letal e interiorização do crime na Bahia (2021-2023).

Abstract

This research investigates the configurations of lethal violence in the state of Bahia, Brazil, with emphasis on the interiorization of crime and the emergence of subregional cities as new epicenters of lethality. Recognizing that conventional metrics—such as homicide rates—are insufficient to explain the territorial complexity of criminality, the study proposes the development of a Weighted Crime Index (WCI). Its analytical application results from a dialogue across multiple theoretical fields, articulating perspectives from the social sciences, critical geography, contemporary criminology, and urban studies. Drawing from authors such as Milton Santos, Lefebvre, Loïc Wacquant, Teresa Caldeira, Zaluar, Misse, Saquet, Brito, and Marcelo Lopes de Souza, the research addresses issues of territorial inequality, mechanisms of stigmatization, and the formation of informal centralities. Critical geography contributes with the notion of territory as a field of dispute and power mediation, highlighting the materiality of space as both expression and instrument of social logics—an essential element in understanding the spatialization of violence and the selective presence of the state. Criminological approaches, particularly from critical and environmental strands, inform discussions on criminal governance, factional presence, and spatial clustering of crime. Urbanism contributes tools to analyze the relationship between urban morphology, infrastructure, and vulnerability to violence, especially regarding the fragmentation of public policies and the lack of integrated planning. By combining these theoretical currents, the research builds a robust and interdisciplinary framework capable of interpreting lethal violence as a multidimensional phenomenon—territorial, political, institutional, and urban— and proposes analytical and operational pathways for its critical understanding and mitigation. The methodology integrates statistical analysis, spatial modeling, expert interviews, and the Delphi technique to weight the selected variables. Findings reveal structured spatial patterns of lethality associated with criminal factions, urban vulnerabilities, and logistical crime networks. The study contributes to the field of public security by proposing an innovative analytical tool with high applicability to preventive public policies, urban planning, and territorial justice. By placing territory as a central analytical dimension, this work challenges traditional statistical logic and offers a deeper interpretation of crime grounded in geographic context, power structures, and historical inequalities. The index not only identifies critical areas of lethality but also reveals how certain localities are functionalized by illicit networks and impacted by the strategic withdrawal of the state.