Análise da reprimarização das exportações brasileiras, encadeamentos e empregos das atividades exportadoras entre 2000 e 2019

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the reprimarization process in Brazil. It examines the export product mix, the production linkages of economic activities, and the employment generated by exports, using an Input-Output approach. Reprimarization refers to a declining share of manufactured goods in a country’s exports. The commodity boom of the early 2000s marked a significant turning point, boosting incentives for the export of primary goods. The economic literature highlights the industry’s strong potential for job creation—both directly, through industrial employment, and indirectly, via its production linkages. In this context, after a detailed analysis of the reprimarization process in Brazil and its recent trajectory, the employment effects of exports will be examined. The analysis uses data from IBGE and Input-Output matrices estimated by GIC/UFRJ for the period 2000–2019, allowing for a clearer view of the process without the distortions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show an increase in export concentration, especially in sectors with relatively weak production linkages. While export-related employment grew significantly, most of this growth occurred in sectors with low employment multipliers.