Relação entre lucros contábeis agregados e o poder preditivo sobre as projeções do PIB brasileiro

Abstract

The study sought to verify whether the use of aggregate profits from the financial statements of publicly traded Brazilian companies has a significant influence on the macroeconomic forecast for Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To this end, using mathematical and statistical methods, we investigated whether analyzing the trajectory of the historical series of accounting profits of Brazilian companies, obtained in aggregate form, from 2016 onwards, has significant predictive power over the progress of quarterly GDP, considering the use of the econometric tool of dynamic regression. The initial hypothesis was confirmed in the sense that there is a significant effect of accounting events, specifically the aggregate nominal profits of companies listed on B3, which can serve as an important forecasting factor, helping to better understand the behavior of the national GDP growth projections actually measured. The robustness tests indicated that the aggregate Current Assets are useful for forecasting GDP, while the aggregate Total Liabilities and Net Revenues of the B3 companies did not prove to be suitable for the macroeconomic methodology used. The findings of this research contribute to academic development by broadening the understanding of the use of aggregate accounting variables as macroeconomic indicators, enriching the theoretical field by proposing new methodological approaches to GDP forecasting. This study fills a gap in the national literature by exploring the predictive potential of accounting information, such as profits and cash and cash equivalents, in macroeconomic contexts. In practical terms, the results have relevant applicability for various stakeholders. Governments and public policy makers can use these variables as additional tools for economic projections and strategic planning. Investors and financial analysts can use this information to improve the allocation of resources in national and international markets, considering the relationship between aggregate corporate profits and national economic performance. The study thus offers useful insights for improving forecasting strategies and decision-making in different spheres.