Análise dos determinantes socioeconômicos da COVID-19 na Bahia

Abstract

According to the WHO (2023), the COVID-19 virus has killed more than 6 million people since 2020. An important question asked during attempts to contain the disease and distribute vaccines was which groups of individuals were most susceptible to infection and death from the virus. In a country with marked regional disparities such as Brazil, understanding this issue is crucial for the ongoing management of COVID-19 and possible future epidemics. This study seeks to determine whether the presence of socially vulnerable groups has led to greater contagion and mortality from the virus in municipalities in Bahia. For its evaluation, we used cross-sectional data from the municipalities of Bahia, taking into account socioeconomic information, data on confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19, municipal development and combat policies implemented by the state and municipal governments. An OLS model was used as a base to check for outliers. Once confirmed, quantile regression and robust regression models were estimated. The results suggest that regional and economic development factors were highly relevant to the spread of the virus. The greater participation of women in the population, harsh policies restricting mobility and greater population density appear to increase infection rates, while the predominance of elderly and black residents and the quality of healthcare provision were not relevant.