Vulnerabilidade do Delta do Rio Jequitinhonha (Nordeste do Brasil) às mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Deltas are low-lying plains that form where the river flows into the sea. They are “hotspots” of climate change since they are sensitive to any variation in sea level and climate change. In this sense, the Brazilian deltas have received little attention in the international literature in relation to ongoing climate changes. The projections of sea level rise by the IPCC of up to 1.01 m by the end of this century put the existence of deltas at risk since a rise in sea level of this magnitude will be able to flood about 40% of Jequitinhonha’s plain area. Additionally, changes in precipitation patterns over the drainage basin are also capable of drastically changing the shoreline behavior. There has been a reduction of approximately 15% in precipitation over the Jequitinhonha watershed since 2006 and the Jequitinhonha river has had increasingly reduced flows, which has triggered severe erosion of the coastline, mainly at the mouth of this river. Considering the forecasts of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) that indicate a 48% reduction in precipitation in this basin by the end of this century, the stability of the coastline of the deltaic plain will be drastically affected. The insights gained from the present study shed light on the understanding of the vulnerability of wave-dominated deltas to climate change.