Efeito da variação pluviométrica sobre a produtividade agrícolae sobre os padrões de uso do solo

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of rainfall variation on the productivity of agricultural activities and on changes in land use patterns in the area where SUDENE operates. The Northeast region of Brazil has edaphoclimatic and socioeconomic characteristics that clearly distinguish it from other regions of the country. Among these, the occurrence of a semi-arid climate and the scarcity of water resources are perceived as limiting factors to the exploration of agricultural activities and elements correlated to the land use changes. This condition stands out in periods of prolonged drought. Agricultural productivity tends to be affected and the strategies used to face these adversities envolve investments in infrastructure, changes in the explored area, conversion of forests and population migrations. Thus, we sought to measure the effect of the proximity of reservoirs in terms of mitigating the effects of droughts. Data were processed using geoprocessing methods and used to estimate the effects of rainfall variation on agricultural productivity, based on econometric models. The results showed that the rainfall variation explains the productivity gains in the SUDENE area and affects the dynamics of land use.