A competição hegemônica sino-americana no Brasil: análise à luz dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos entre 2012-2023

Abstract

How has the hegemonic competition between the United States of America (USA) and China influenced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from these countries in Brazil, between 2012 and 2023, in terms of patterns and priority sectors? This research seeks to address this question through the analysis of quantitative data regarding FDI from both countries, alongside a literature review. Before the quantitative data analysis, a theoretical discussion is carried out on the concepts of hegemony and imperialism in International Relations, working with traditional perspectives and incorporating Chinese contributions. Based on the analyses conducted in this first chapter, the current moment of the international system is characterized as one of hegemonic competition. The second chapter addresses the mechanisms of American hegemony, discusses the Chinese rise and the consequent relative decline of the United States, characterizing the scenario that led to the current rivalry. The third chapter analyzes the FDI data from both countries and evaluates them together with strategic documents published by both countries, such as the US National Security Strategies and China’s policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean. Two hypotheses were formulated based on preliminary knowledge of the topic. The first hypothesis was that the intensification of the US-China dispute would have led to a change in the investment patterns of these countries in Brazil. The second hypothesis suggested that the Chinese strategy would be more active than the American one, focusing on infrastructure and natural resources sectors, whereas the American strategy would be limited to trying to contain China’s advance, prioritizing market mechanisms. In light of the findings, the first hypothesis was partially confirmed and the second was refuted. The collected data indicate that both powers have gradually diversified their investments in Brazil, specifically allocating resources to sectors of mutual strategic interest. However, in the absence of more in-depth tests, it is not possible to attribute causality to the intensification of the rivalry for this effect. It was also found that China is the 7th largest investor in Brazil, with a high concentration in the energy and natural resources sectors, and low participation in infrastructure. The US appears as the largest investor, with this magnitude and greater sectoral diversification evidencing the dynamism of the American strategy, which is not limited to merely containing China. Finally, final considerations are made and the limitations of the research are pointed out. It is argued that the importance of FDI from both powers requires a pragmatic stance in the face of hegemonic competition, seeking to maximize the opportunities offered. The possibility of new research developments is foreseen, such as expanding the analysis to other countries and respective comparative studies, as well as analyzing the effects of FDI on local development.