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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/14688

Title: Impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on Visceral Leishmaniasis, Brazil
Other Titles: Emerging Infectious Diseases
Authors: Franke, Carlos Roberto
Ziller, Mario
Staubach, Christoph
Latif, Mojib
Keywords: Leishmaniose visceral;El Niño
Issue Date: 2002
Abstract: We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Niño-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985–1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Niño years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year’s mean Niño-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Niño on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil.
Description: p. 914-917
URI: http://repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/14688
ISSN: 1080-604
Appears in Collections:Artigos Publicados em Periódicos (EMV)

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