Evolução dos determinantes da violência e da criminalidade na Bahia entre 2015 e 2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the context and evolution of the determinants of crime and violence in the State of Bahia between 2015 and 2024, seeking to capture both the dynamics preceding the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent variations up to the most recent period. To this end, a range of social, economic, educational, and geographic indicators was examined in order to provide a consistent descriptive characterization of the evolution of criminality in Bahia over the last year. The analysis relies on aggregated data obtained from official sources such as SIM DATASUS, SIDRA/IBGE, the Brazilian Forum on Public Security, and the Bahia Public Security Yearbook (ISPE), which provide updated and reliable information on different dimensions of Bahia’s criminal reality. The central focus is to track changes in the main determinants of crime during the pre- and post-pandemic periods, enabling not only an understanding of the trajectory of the indicators but also of their potential connections with structural factors, such as socioeconomic inequality, access to education, labor-market conditions, and regional heterogeneities. The findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic represented a decisive turning point in the dynamics of several social and economic indicators. The 2019 pandemic disrupted productive activities, reduced both formal and informal employment, and heightened the vulnerability of already fragile groups, which was reflected in the initial rise in unemployment and increased pressures on factors associated with crime. Conversely, some indicators, such as income and the Gini coefficient, showed temporary improvements due to government emergency policies implemented to mitigate the economic impacts of the crisis. Regarding violence, the state of Bahia remains one of the most critical areas in the country, recording high levels of Intentional Violent Deaths (MVI) and Intentional Lethal Violent Crimes (CVLI). The MVI rate, for instance, is approximately twice the national average. This scenario reflects the multifactorial complexity of the phenomenon, in which structural variables, such as low per- capita income, high inequality, persistent unemployment, and limited access to education, continue to play a central role in sustaining elevated levels of criminality.