Valuation: avaliação econômica da empresa Neoenergia S.A.

Abstract

This study aims to conduct an economic analysis of Neoenergia S.A., a Public Utility company operating in the Electric Energy sector, listed on B3 under the ticker NEOE3 and part of the Novo Mercado segment, using the valuation methodology based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. For the economic and financial assessment, the company’s financial statements are projected for the next five years (2025-2029) and for perpetuity, applying a twostage growth model, based on historical data from the period 2022-2024. As a result, the economic value per share was estimated at R$ 43.51 in December 2024, indicating a potential upside of 136% relative to the prevailing market price of R$ 18.44. To test the robustness of the valuation model, a sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and the variable cost. In the pessimistic scenario, characterized by an increase in the WACC to 8.41% and in the variable cost to 45.75%, the estimated value per share was R$ 16.39, indicating a potential downside of approximately 11.1% relative to the market price. Conversely, in the optimistic scenario, with a reduction in the WACC to 7.41% and the variable cost maintained at 39.75%, the estimated value per share reached R$ 100.27, representing a level more than five times higher than the share price recorded on December 30, 2024.