Quais os obstáculos metodológicos na estimação dos multiplicadores fiscais?

Abstract

This research aims to bring together different approaches and discussions, theoretical and empirical, presented in the literature, on the challenge of estimating fiscal multipliers. The countercyclical value of fiscal policy effectiveness is represented by an estimated numerical coefficient, which revolves around 1, called “fiscal multiplier”. The size and sign of the multiplier proved, over years of empirical studies, to be extremely sensitive to the macroeconomic characteristics of each country. Furthermore, methodological decisions in empirical research have proven to be particularly influential in the diversity of results found. This work aims to summarize the convergences and divergences of this debate.