As exportações brasileiras: um enfoque de portfólio eficiente

Abstract

The selection of an efficient export portfolio allows the country to better adapt to medium and long-term planning, with greater stability and lower risks, which gives sustainability to development. The portfolio model, by Markowitz, allows evaluating a country's export portfolio through a return and risk analysis, enabling the selection of an optimal portfolio. In this context, Brazil's export portfolios were evaluated in 6-digit numbers of the Mercosur Common Nomenclature. It was found that the national portfolio has been diversifying with increasingly equitable participation of the component products. The sections Textiles, Food Industries, and Common Metals and Their Products were selected from among the most important in all three periods considered in the analysis, which indicates the potential for stability of their products in the structural conformation of the country's export agenda, noting that these products are those traditionally exported by the country. The model is an instrument in decision-making, in the case of exportable products, where the productive and trade structure of a country is at stake, which involves producers, workers and traders, that is, both people and productive resources in the production and export process.