Modelagem de impactos econômicos da pandemia Covid-19: aplicação para o estado da Bahia

Abstract

The paper presents scenarios of economic impacts of the isolation policies related to Pandemic Covid-19 in Bahia’s state. At the same time, it seeks to broaden the debate on the economic consequences of the pandemic based on the relationship between the fundamentals of epidemic and recession curves in the economy. The model is based on the input-output methodology, with partial hypothetical extraction to simulate lockdown scenarios in national and regional economies. However, we have moved forward in shaping the resilience effort of all economic sectors to endogenously reduce the lockdown to keep essential sectors like health in full operation. The policy scenario to be tested will be the withdrawal of informal workers from the market, with and without compensatory policy. The results shown that there would be a significant reduction in economic activity, with emphasis on sectors of oil refining, trade, services, among others. On the other hand, the public administration sector has the capacity to restrict part of the recessionary process. Finally, the magnitude of the impacts increases considerably when considering curves of recession regarding the slower resumption of economic activities due to the extension of social isolation or endogenous elements of the economy. Finally, the negative impacts can be reduced by up to 1/3 when considering 100% compensatory policy, due to the maintenance of activities in sectors such as food production and trade.