What is the future of cancer care? A technology foresight assessment of experts' expectations

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to generate qualified information on technologiesthat are expected to be relevant to cancer care over the next thirty years(2017–2037). Drawing on the concepts of technology foresight, amethodology was developed for future technology research. Futuretechnologies were identified by consulting editorials of journalsspecializing in oncology. Nine technologies were selected with thepotential to impact cancer care in the future. Additionally, a method wasdeveloped for consulting a large number of experts from articlesindexed in Thomson Reuters Web of Science. In this survey, more than83,000 cancer specialists were invited to answer a web survey in whichthey expressed their expectations about the future of cancer care. Thequestionnaire was answered by 2408 specialists, 56% of whom statedthey were highly knowledgeable experts. Our results show thatantibody-related therapies, molecular imaging, and tumor deliverysystems are the technologies most likely to be used in cancer care inthe next thirty years. The main reasons pointed out for the choice ofthese technologies were improvements in the prognosis of the diseaseand improved diagnostic reliability. Meanwhile, knowledge and scientificbarriers were highlighted as the main obstacles to the development ofthe technologies deemed to have more limited chances of success.