What is the future of lab-on-a-chip diagnostic devices? Assessing changes in experts' expectations over time

Abstract

Purpose: Lab on-a-chip (LOC) may lead to low-cost point-of-care devices for the diagnosis of human diseases, possibly making laboratories dispensable. However, as it is still an emerging technology, very little is known about its future impact on the diagnosis of human diseases, and on the laboratory industry. Hence, the purpose of this study is to foresee possible developments of this technology through a consultation with researchers in the field in two distinct time periods. Design/methodology/approach: Based on Technology Foresight, this study addresses this gap by assessing the opinions of over five hundred LOC researchers and tracking changes in their views on the future of LOC diagnostic devices. These researchers participated in a two-wave global survey with an interval of two and a half years Findings: Although second-wave (2020) respondents are less optimistic than those of the first wave (2017), the results of both surveys show that LOC diagnostic devices are expected to: move from proof-of-concept demonstrations to industrial development, becoming commercially feasible worldwide; integrate all laboratory processes, delivering cheaper, faster and more reliable diagnoses than laboratories; and provide low-cost point-of-care solutions, improving access to healthcare. Research: limitations/implications Although it would be desirable to collect and explore the views of different sets of stakeholders, the method of generating lists of survey respondents shows a bias toward academic/scientific circles because the respondents are authors of scientific publications. These publications may as well be authored by stakeholders from other fields but it is reasonable to assume that most of them are researchers affiliated with universities and research and development organizations. Therefore, this study lacks in providing an image of the future based on a more diverse set of respondents. Social implications: The results show that these devices are expected to radically change the diagnostic testing market and the way laboratories are organized, perhaps moving to a non-laboratory-based model. In conclusion, in the coming decades, these devices may promote substantial changes in the way human diseases are diagnosed. Originality/value: Only a few studies have attempted to foresee the future of LOC devices, and most are based on literature reviews. Thus, this study goes beyond the existing research by providing a broad understanding of what the future will look like from the views of researchers who are contributing to the advancement of knowledge in the field. The researchers invited to take part in this study are authors of LOC-related scientific publications indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection.