Regra do teto dos gastos públicos (PEC 55/241) e sustentabilidade da dívida pública no Brasil: análise de cenários a partir de um modelo DSGE

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyze, under different scenarios, the trajectory of the public debt with a government current expenditure ceiling rule. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model was used considering two different scenarios, assuming compliance or not with the new fiscal rule by the government. In the context in which the government did not comply with the ceiling, the primary result dropped significantly and the public debt grew persistently, even in the face of positive shocks to productivity and taxes. In the scenario where the government complied with the ceiling rule, fiscal responsibility was able to correct the imbalance in its accounts, both in the face of the productivity shock and also in the face of fiscal shocks on taxes.