Explorando os efeitos do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Indústria Química – (PADIQ) nos setores estimulados pelo governo

Abstract

The development of the industrial sector plays a significant role in a nation's growth and directly impacts people's quality of life. The State plays a prominent role in designing and coordinating structural projects that lead to meaningful outcomes in both the sector and the national economy. This study contributes to the literature on industrial policies by providing a detailed empirical analysis of the impacts of the Chemical Industry Development and Innovation Plan (PADIQ) on employment and income indicators of firms in the Brazilian chemical sector. To achieve this, administrative records from chemical sector companies, obtained through the Annual Social Information Report (RAIS), were matched with a list of firms that applied for or attempted to access PADIQ’s financial incentives. Among the applicant firms, it was possible to identify those that had resources approved (treatment group) and those that did not (control group). The unit of analysis in this study is the firm, observed over the period from 2010 to 2021. For the quantitative analysis, we adopted the Difference-in-Differences (Diff-in-Diff) method, a widely used quasi-experimental approach for estimating causal effects of public policies. This choice is supported by the clear definition of treatment and control groups, which enables the identification of an estimate of the causal effect of the evaluated policy. The results suggest that the program had a positive impact on employment, with a significant increase in the number of employees observed in the model without covariate controls. However, this effect is substantially reduced and loses statistical significance when covariates are included, indicating a possible influence of observable factors. Regarding income—both average wages and hourly wages—no statistically significant impact was found, and the same applies to total payroll once covariates are accounted for.