A influência da agressividade tributária sobre o risco empresarial em empresas brasileiras de capital aberto: uma análise moderada pelo risco fiscal

Abstract

Taxation is a highly relevant topic for taxpayers, especially for companies, as it represents a significant cost that impacts their cash flow. The tax planning strategies companies adopt vary in intensity and can reflect distinct levels of tax aggressiveness. In this study, tax aggressiveness is analyzed without considering illicit practices, such as tax evasion and avoidance, as these behaviors are criminalized under Brazilian law. While aggressive tax strategies may generate financial benefits, they also entail costs that can outweigh the tax savings obtained, exposing companies to firm and tax risks. This study aimed to analyze the moderating effect of tax risk on the influence of tax aggressiveness on firm risk in Brazilian public companies. The study investigates whether these companies consider both firm and tax risks together when deciding to adopt aggressive tax strategies, providing, to the author's knowledge, the first empirical evidence of the role of tax risk in this influence within the Brazilian context. The inclusion of tax risk as a moderating factor in the relationship between tax aggressiveness and firm risk is a valuable contribution, as this aspect has been underexplored in the literature, particularly in Brazil. Methodologically, this is a quantitative, descriptive, and documentary study. The sample for this research included Brazilian publicly traded companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, Brazil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3), with data collected from the Refinitiv Eikon® database and the reference forms provided by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). The analysis period covered the years from 2010 to 2023. The data analysis employed the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) regression approach, a method suitable for scenarios characterized by heteroscedasticity and serial dependence, offering more robust and reliable estimates. The results indicate that companies adopting aggressive tax strategies tend to exhibit greater exposure to firm risk. However, tax risk, when analyzed in isolation, did not show a significant influence on firm risk, contrary to the study's initial expectations. On the other hand, when considering the moderating effect of tax risk on the influence of tax aggressiveness on firm risk, it was found that combining tax aggressiveness with high tax risk amplifies firm risk. In other words, companies that engage in aggressive tax practices while simultaneously facing high tax risk exposure become more vulnerable to market fluctuations. Additionally, the robustness tests partially corroborate the main findings, lending greater consistency to the study's conclusions. The discrepancies observed in some scenarios can be attributed to the distinctive characteristics of the metrics used, which capture distinct dimensions of firm risk, tax risk, and tax aggressiveness.