Modelagem espaço-temporal da raiva em herbívoros e animais selvagens no estado da Bahia

Abstract

Rabies is a lethal zoonosis with global relevance due to its impact on public health and the economy, particularly in developing countries. Caused by the Rabies lyssavirus, from the Rhabdoviridae family, it is primarily transmitted through the saliva of infected mammals, such as dogs, cats, and bats. In Brazil, despite a significant reduction in human rabies cases attributed to the control of dogs and cats, sylvatic rabies, particularly involving bats, has become an emerging concern. This scenario reflects ecological and socioeconomic changes, including deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion, which increase interactions among humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. The thesis is structured with a literature review covering various aspects of rabies etiology and epidemiology, followed by two original chapters. In the first chapter, bovine rabies was analyzed as a fatal zoonosis with significant economic and public health impacts. This study investigated the incidence of bovine rabies in Bahia from 2006 to 2022, assessing the influence of socio environmental factors such as the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), Environmental Degradation Index (EDI), land use and land cover, and climatic variables. Using statistical models, including GAM and GLMM, and spatial analyses (LISA), heterogeneous distribution patterns were identified, with higher incidence in environmentally degraded regions and lower incidence in areas with greater forest and pasture coverage. The findings highlight the importance of sustainable agricultural practices, epidemiological surveillance, and environmental restoration for disease control. This chapter concludes that integrating environmental and socioeconomic factors is essential for the effective management of bovine rabies. In the second chapter, an outbreak of rabies in bats in Feira de Santana, Bahia, between 2023 and 2024, was investigated, focusing on non-hematophagous bats. A total of 213 bats collected from 2017 to 2024 were analyzed, with 23 positive samples (10.8%; 95% CI: 6.97\u201315.76). Most cases (91.3%) occurred in 2023\u20132024, with the species Mollossus mollossus representing 25.9% of positive cases. Spatiotemporal analysis identified significant clustering patterns, and Random Forest models highlighted climatic variables (precipitation and wind) and land use (water coverage) as predictors of positivity. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was associated with cases in urban areas. The findings emphasize the impact of environmental changes and social inequalities on rabies dynamics, underscoring the need for integrated strategies in public health management and environmental conservation. The general conclusion of the thesis reinforces that rabies in Bahia reflects a complex interaction of ecological, social, and economic factors. Human-driven environmental changes, such as deforestation and agricultural intensification, play a central role in disease dynamics, while social inequalities limit access to healthcare and prophylaxis. The study highlights the importance of integrating epidemiological surveillance, health education, and environmental conservation to mitigate the risks 16 associated with rabies. Furthermore, it recommends developing predictive models incorporating environmental and socioeconomic variables to support effective public policies. Based on the findings, strengthening surveillance actions, including bat monitoring and expanding herbivore vaccination in high-risk areas, is imperative. Additionally, intersectoral coordination involving public health, agriculture, and environmental sectors is necessary to build an integrated strategy for rabies control within the One Health framework. This work contributes to understanding rabies as a multifactorial disease and to formulating preventive actions based on scientific evidence.