Programa Bolsa Família e emprego formal nos municípios da Bahia no período de 2004 a 2019.

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the expansion of the Bolsa Família Program and formal employment and hours hired in municipalities in the State of Bahia between 2004 and 2019. Bolsa Família is a conditional cash transfer program created in 2004 to provide relief to families in situations of social vulnerability and help to break the cycle of poverty by encouraging their access to educational and health services. The program is particularly important in the State of Bahia, where more than half of the population lives below the poverty line. This characteristic makes families in the State particularly dependent on assistance from the program. The evidence in the literature does not point to a consensus regarding the impacts of the program on the level of employment and labor supply at the macroeconomic level. This study used a panel data fixed effects model to estimate the effects of interest, using data from the IBGE, CadÚnico, and RAIS, at the municipal level, between 2004 and 2019. It was observed that the expansion of the program is positively correlated with formal employment and hours hired, mainly through increases in the average value of the benefit. This correlation becomes even stronger when limiting the analysis to private-sector jobs.