Modelo de avaliação gerencial para transição energética aplicado ao setor eólico

Abstract

Oil has been the main source of energy used by mankind for many years. However, the finite characteristics, as well as the consequences of their use, have led to the search for the development of new renewable energy sources, that is, to realize the energy transition. Wind energy has emerged as an alternative to meet growing energy demand. The objective of this work was to develop a decision support model to encourage companies to carry out the energy transition to the wind energy sector. The model was based on the TOPSIS methodology of multicriteria analysis. The data for the application of the model were obtained by reviewing the literature and applying a questionnaire to wind and oil companies. The way companies in these markets relate decision making to internal and external factors is different. The companies were classified according to investment profiles and, from there, analyzed as to the capacity of transition. Initially, we used data from wind power generation companies with projects under way to calibrate the model and identify the ideal solution. The result of the simulation with data from oil companies showed that company F, with experience in renewable sources, had an approximation of 57% with the ideal solution found, while the companies E and G, which only invests in oil, an approximation of 46% and 42% respectively. Even so, the result was considered positive for the investment, as the companies were within the range of acceptance for the investment profiles declared by them.