Etanol carburante no Brasil: evolução, cenários e o seu desempenho sob os critérios da Renovabio

Abstract

RenovaBio is the new National Biofuel Policy in Brazil with the objective of contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions - GHG, promoting the expansion of production and encouraging the use of biofuels. Its principles are the contribution of the biofuels market to the generation of jobs, income and regional development and the promotion of value chains related to a sustainable bioeconomy. The main objective of this work is to carry out an exploratory study on the expansion of production and consumption of Ethanol Fuel in Brazil, focusing on different Brazilian regions and, in view of RenovaBio's projections, to carry out a regionalized analysis of the results of the certification plan for this program. For this, a current and historical view of the production of this biofuel is presented, as well as the consumption related to the mitigation of greenhouse gases, to the development scenarios, presenting a forecast for regional growth in the production of this biofuel. This research is an exploratory, descriptive, quantitative, bibliographical and documentary study of the updated literature, based on an analysis of public information regarding the growth of the ethanol biofuel, its effects and perspectives. This work concludes that RenovaBio is a milestone for supporting climate mitigation actions, stimulating the production and consumption of ethanol in Brazil and is partially adequate to generate sustainability for the growth of the biofuel market in Brazil as a whole. The high number of biofuel production units that joined the program indicates an expectation of success for the program by society. However, the Brazilian legislation for ethanol will require a greater regulatory effort to be successful in stimulating the production and consumption of ethanol, having as a great challenge the great differences between the regions of Brazil. As for growth estimates, this work concludes that government estimates regarding the growth in ethanol production can be achieved, with greater attention to regional aspects being required. This will require intense monitoring of the performance of regulation in the face of inequalities between regions that are less intensive in ethanol production and consumption.