Resumo:
This paper examines the relationship between heavy rainfall, flood occurrence, and the effectiveness of disaster risk management (DRM) policies in Brazilian municipalities. Specifically, we analyze three commonly adopted DRM policies by local administrations: flood risk mapping, supervision of flood-prone areas, and implementation of warning systems. Using a two-way fixed effect (TWFE) approach and comprehensive monthly municipal data from 2013 to 2019, our findings reveal that heavy rainfall triggers floods in directly exposed areas and increases the probability of flood occurrence in neighboring municipalities, indicating the presence of spatial spillovers. However, the adoption of DRM policies is found to be insufficient in mitigating the effects of rainfall on flood occurrence.
