Resumo:
The objective of this article was to detect the economic signs of a cartel, in the distribution and resale of LPG, in Brasília-DF, from May 2004 to March 2020. The relevant market was chosen due to the investigation related to Administrative Proceeding No. 2008-37. Three economic filters were applied: the
price variation coefficient; a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model,
including a dummy cartel variable; and the Error Correction Model (MCE). Price variation coefficients indicated that, during the cartel period, LPG prices at distributors and resellers were more aligned. The
results of the GARCH model suggested that, during the cartel period, the prices of distributors and resellers
showed less variance and the price of LPG at resale increased. The estimated MCE allowed detecting positive ATP in the short term, suggesting an economic sign of a cartel in the resale of LPG.
