Dinâmica do desempenho do comércio varejista brasileiro entre 2003 e 2013: ciclo de expansão e fatores macroeconômicos

Abstract

The Brazilian retail trade between, 2003 and 2013, showed a high growth rate driven by the good performance of the Brazilian economy in this period. Given the above, this paper aims to evaluate, through the autoregressive vectors methodology, the intertemporal relations of the variables that influenced the growth dynamics of the retail in this period of bonanza. The results of the impulse response and variance functions of the variance indicated that income, Selic and consumer confidence index had a greater influence on the performance of trade in the medium and long term. The exchange rate in general followed the same behavior, but also had relevant weight in the short term.