Avaliação dos impactos econômicos dos desastres relacionados as chuvas e simulação de políticas de realocação para desabrigados e desalojados na Bahia: uma contribuição a partir da abordagem insumo-produto

Abstract

Hydrological disasters such as floods and landslides have become increasingly frequent and intense, disproportionately affecting vulnerable regions. In 2021, heavy rains in Bahia caused widespread flooding, population displacement, and substantial losses across productive sectors and intersectoral supply chains. In this context, the objective of this thesis was to estimate the initial, direct, and indirect economic impacts of the hydrological disasters that occurred in Bahia in 2021, considering the partial interruption of economic activities through the partial hypothetical extraction method. Specifically, the thesis aimed to: a) estimate the initial, direct, and indirect economic impacts of the 2021 disasters in Bahia using an input-output framework combined with the partial hypothetical extraction technique; b) identify the sectoral interdependencies and propagation effects of hydrological disasters, such as floods and landslides, on the Bahian economy; and c) simulate the impact of a relocation policy for displaced and homeless populations through a stimulus to the construction sector, assessing how such intervention could contribute to economic recovery. Initially, the partial hypothetical extraction technique within the input-output model was applied to evaluate disruptions in economic activities and intersectoral linkages. A structural decomposition analysis was then conducted to distinguish the effects of changes in gross output resulting from variations in final demand and technological structure. Subsequently, the effects of a resettlement policy targeting displaced populations were modeled, proposing an economic stimulus directed toward the construction sector. This simulation aimed to explore how infrastructure investments could facilitate economic recovery and strengthen regional resilience. The results show that the disasters caused significant losses in the intermediate supply of economic sectors, resulting in a total reduction of R$ 330.14 million in gross output. Among the most affected sectors was agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and aquaculture (R$ 93.41 million in the rest of Bahia and R$ 3.04 million in the rest of Brazil), as expected, given their high vulnerability to climatic events due to their dependence on environmental conditions. Other manufacturing industries also experienced notable losses in gross output, particularly in Salvador (R$ 0.25 million), the rest of Brazil (R$ 19.81 million), and the rest of the Salvador Metropolitan Area (R$ 7.61 million), with the latter accounting for more than 81% of the total variation in output. The trade sector in the rest of Bahia also concentrated a large share of the total losses, representing 49.6% of the region’s total output variation. However, of the total loss in gross production value (VBP), approximately 21% (R$ 67.98 million) corresponds to the indirect effects of the floods, distributed among Salvador (2.47%), the rest of the APS (13.81%), and the rest of Brazil (83.72%). Thus, regions that initially experienced no direct sectoral shocks may still suffer indirect economic impacts, depending on their degree of dependence on intermediate supply and final demand from sectors initially affected in other regions. The structural decomposition analysis revealed that the rest of Bahia exhibited low sectoral resilience, while technological effects acted as buffers, partially mitigating production losses, especially in Salvador, the rest of the APS, and the rest of Brazil. These findings suggest that Bahia’s economic vulnerabilities are structural rather than merely cyclical, reflecting regional inequalities and productive interdependencies that constrain the diffusion of final demand effects and reduce the effectiveness of short-term reconstruction policies.