Resumo:
The development of the industrial sector plays a significant role in a nation's growth and directly
impacts people's quality of life. The State plays a prominent role in designing and coordinating
structural projects that lead to meaningful outcomes in both the sector and the national
economy. This study contributes to the literature on industrial policies by providing a detailed
empirical analysis of the impacts of the Chemical Industry Development and Innovation Plan
(PADIQ) on employment and income indicators of firms in the Brazilian chemical sector. To
achieve this, administrative records from chemical sector companies, obtained through the
Annual Social Information Report (RAIS), were matched with a list of firms that applied for or
attempted to access PADIQ’s financial incentives. Among the applicant firms, it was possible
to identify those that had resources approved (treatment group) and those that did not (control
group). The unit of analysis in this study is the firm, observed over the period from 2010 to
2021. For the quantitative analysis, we adopted the Difference-in-Differences (Diff-in-Diff)
method, a widely used quasi-experimental approach for estimating causal effects of public
policies. This choice is supported by the clear definition of treatment and control groups, which
enables the identification of an estimate of the causal effect of the evaluated policy. The results
suggest that the program had a positive impact on employment, with a significant increase in
the number of employees observed in the model without covariate controls. However, this effect
is substantially reduced and loses statistical significance when covariates are included,
indicating a possible influence of observable factors.
Regarding income—both average wages and hourly wages—no statistically significant impact
was found, and the same applies to total payroll once covariates are accounted for.
