A influência das mudanças climáticas, uso da terra e características da paisagem na distribuição potencial do macaco-prego-do peito-amararelo

Abstract

Human activities have caused widespread changes to natural ecosystems in recent centuries and continue to severely threaten biodiversity worldwide. Among the consequences of these activities, we can mention changes in climate and land use cover. Climate change has contributed to marked changes in the geographic distribution of species throughout the planet’s evolutionary history, being considered one of the greatest threats to species diversity and causing a serious impoverishment of biodiversity. The change in land cover influences the availability of suitable habitats and, consequently, the potential population size of the species. Therefore, our goal was to predict the effects of climate and landscape changes on the potential distribution of the yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos), a critically endangered species. For that, we carried out, separately, an ecological niche modelling (climate model), habitat adequacy model (landscape model), and an analysis considering these two factors together (additive model). In addition, we verified the landscape characteristics of areas considered suitable, in the long term, for the occurrence of this species, indicating geographic areas that are likely to present favorable conditions for the species to remain in the next 50 years. For each analysis, we calculated adequate total area size; percentage of forest cover; conservation status of the species; percentage of the area protected by conservation units. Finally, we verified the suitability and percentage of forest cover in 14 areas considered important for the conservation of S. xanthosternos, defined within the scope of the National Action Plan for the Conservation of Northeastern Primates (PAN Primatas do Nordeste). We show that the south of the State of Bahia will be responsible, in the long term, for maintaining viable areas for the occurrence of S. xanthosternos. On the other hand, our analyzes predict, a local extirpation of S. xanthosternos in the next 50 years within the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes. We also show that the areas that will remain adequate in the next 50 years will be less complex, and the shape with the lowest perimeter/area ratio, aggregates, will be increasingly continuous and large, making the occurrence of S. xanthosternos in small and isolated fragments each time. increasingly rare. Serra do Conduru, Teimoso-Lontras-Una, and the Reserva Ecológica Michelin proved to be the most suitable areas to maintain populations of S. xanthosternos in the long term. Our results demonstrate the importance of the joint use and application of climate and landscape models to improve and increase the consistency of assessments, especially concerning the definition of priority areas for conservation. Information on landscape features of areas considered suitable for S. xanthosternos, is useful for conservation measures to be taken before extinction thresholds are reached.