O mercado de energia elétrica no Brasil: mapeamento, análise econométrica e geração por biomassa de cana-de-açúcar

Abstract

The growing demand for electricity in Brazil could have significant economic implications for the market. Therefore, it is important to investigate alternative sources that attend to this demand, in addition to understanding the main factors that influence this process. Therefore, this research was developed under two problematizing parts: the first one is related to the analysis of residential and industrial electricity demand, and the second one, is to the potential for generating electricity from vegetable biomass and the analysis of electricity consumption from of sugarcane bagasse. It is exploratory research of a predominantly quantitative nature. In the biomass mapping, Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used, whose results were displayed in thematic maps. To evaluate residential and industrial consumption, balanced panels were used. The models were estimated by the Generalized Moments Method (GMM), in a version known as System – GMM (SY – GMM). In the industrial case, in addition to the estimated price and income parameters, the differences between the consumption of more and less industrialized States were estimated, as well as part of the effects of the COVID 19 pandemic on electricity consumption. Regarding the electricity consumption from sugarcane bagasse, the econometric strategy was also based on a balanced panel composed of the main sugar bagasse electricity-producing States. The model was also estimated by GMM and analyzed the demand for sugar-alcohol electricity for Brazil and for States considered richer and poorer. The biomass mapping revealed that Brazil still has a significant electricity generation potential, capable of making the electric matrix even more renewable. The price and income parameters of residential demand, to the national scenario, were consistent with economic theory and with the literature, however, for regional scenarios, the current consumption policy control harms the more vulnerable regions. With regard to the industrial sector, the main result is related to a possible systematic effect of the levels of development of each state on price elasticity. More developed States tend to be more price-sensitive than less developed regions. In addition, due to the particularities of each market, less developed States had smaller reductions in industrial electrical consumption than more developed States, including during the period of incidence of COVID-19. The modeling of sugarcane bioelectricity demand evidenced the complementarity effect of this source with hydroelectricity and a possible systematic effect between income levels on the price elasticity of demand for electricity from sugarcane. The results of this research can be useful for public managers who work in the energy planning environment, where supply and demand must be analyzed together, seeking to avoid mismatches between consumption and generation. In addition, electricity generating companies, and also eventual private investors in the electricity sector could use the results achieved here as a source of analysis for programming the production and purchase of electricity and also for economic and financial feasibility studies for future projects in electricity generation.