O excesso de confiança gerencial e seu efeito sobre estratégia empresarial: uma análise de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto listadas na Brasil, bolsa, balcão (B3)

Abstract

This research aimed to measure the effect of the managerial cognitive bias of overconfidence on business strategy within the scope of publicly traded Brazilian companies listed on Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3). In order to compose the sample of this research, a survey was carried out of the data of the companies that operate in B3 through the Economatica system, explanatory notes and a reference form. Such data were used as a basis for measuring indicators that represent the latent variables of the proposed empirical model to test the hypotheses, through multimomial logistic regression, which uses maximum likelihood estimation. Initially, the sample consisted of 382 companies that disclosed their accounting information. Of the total number of listed companies, 59 companies in the financial sector were excluded, 153 companies that presented information on sales revenue or total assets equal to zero in at least one period, 17 companies that did not provide information on the number of employees in a period at least and 18 companies that did not provide information about the company's market value, resulting in a sample composed of 135 companies evaluated during the period between 2010 and 2019, totaling 1,080 observations. As shown in the analysis of the results, overconfidence influences the definition of the analytical strategy. In other words, companies that manifest cognitive bias tend to adopt the analytical strategy when compared to defender and prospector strategies. Thus, responding to the research problem, although it was not possible to verify the effect of cognitive bias between defender and prospector companies.