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Futuro esperado da atenção ao câncer: um estudo de technology foresight baseado em expectativas de especialistas

Fri, 23 Feb 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Título: Futuro esperado da atenção ao câncer: um estudo de technology foresight baseado em expectativas de especialistas Autor(es): Cabral, Bernardo Pereira Primeiro Orientador: Fonseca, Maria da Graça Derengowski Abstract: The aim of this thesis is to generate qualified information about technologies that may be relevant to cancer care in the next 30 years (2017-2047). We used technology foresight framework to deepen concepts and incorporate methods for future technologies research. The research focused on technologies developed from biotechnological tools (or biopharmaceuticals). For the identification of future technologies, a method was developed from the consultation of editorials of journals specialized in oncology. This method allowed the selection of nine technologies with the potential to have a future impact on cancer care. In addition, a method of consulting a large number of experts was developed from e-mail from authors of indexed articles in the Thomson Reuters’ Web of Science database. In this survey, more than 83,000 cancer specialists were invited to report, through a Web Survey, their expectations about the future of cancer care. The questionnaire was answered by 2,408 specialists - of whom, 1,348 auto declared themselves experts with high knowledge in the subject. The results presented here refer to the answers of high knowledge specialists. These experts pointed out that antibody-related therapies, molecular imaging, and tumor delivery systems are the technologies most likely to be used in cancer care for the next thirty years. Among the reasons pointed out for the choice of these technologies, we highlight, mainly, the improvement in the prognosis of the disease and the greater reliability in the diagnoses. Among the technologies with a low expectation of success, knowledge and scientific barriers were highlighted as the main obstacles to its development. Editora / Evento / Instituição: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Tipo: Tese

Política energética e desigualdades regionais na economia brasileira

Fri, 01 Jan 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Título: Política energética e desigualdades regionais na economia brasileira Autor(es): Santos, Gervásio Ferreira dos Primeiro Orientador: Haddad, Eduardo Amaral Abstract: The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the long-run regional impacts of tariff policy of the Brazilian electric power sector. The structural reforms carried on this sector determined the emergence of two different spatial distribution trends of the electric power tariffs among the Brazilian states: one of convergence and another of spatial divergence. The regional dispersion of tariffs is being influenced by the spatial features of the Brazilian economy, which is marked by the high degree of spatial concentration and the hierarchical distribution of large markets on the space. In spite of this, the electric power price differentials in Brazil tend to be determined by the market size differentials, which provide different conditions for gains from economies of scale by the electric power distribution companies. Based on these elements and in the fact that electric power is an important input for the production process, an Interregional Computable General Equilibrium model for energy policy analysis was built. The simulations showed that the input-output linkages, the spatial heterogeneity of the electric power intensity and the regional energy substitution differentials are the main determinants of spatial impacts of electric power price changes in Brazil. On the other hand, the recent trend of spatial divergence of the electric power prices may be contributing to reduce the national real GDP and to increase the regional inequalities in Brazil Editora / Evento / Instituição: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Tipo: Tese

Cycles de croissance financiarisés en Amérique Latine depuis les années 1970: I'économie brésilienne entre le cycle du <> économique et le cycle stagnant (1967-2001)

Sat, 01 Jan 2005 00:00:00 GMT

Título: Cycles de croissance financiarisés en Amérique Latine depuis les années 1970: I'économie brésilienne entre le cycle du <> économique et le cycle stagnant (1967-2001) Autor(es): Caffé, Antonio Ricardo Dantas Abstract: Depuis trois décennies, la dynamique d'accumulation du capital de l'économie brésilienne a évolué sur le long terme, au gré des cycles de croissance et a été modulée par la finaciarisation accrue de la répatition des revenus. Cette macrodynamique nous a conduit à analysions dans un premier temps la période correspondant à la crise étendue à marche forcée (1967 - 1990), puis dans un deuxième temps, la période d'ouverture économique et du plan Real (1994-2001). Cés événements soulèvent l'importance de la classiques. Nous examinons alors la relation théorique entre la macrodynamique de la financiarisation (cycles de croissance) et les analyses structuralistes. Ensuite, en mobilisant les outils empiriques, nous analysons la persistance des phénomènes non linéaires liés aux cycles de croissance latino-américains. Le cycle de croissance financiarisé qui est déterminé par la tendance à la stagnation, est incorporé dans un modèle Furtado-Goodwin où le caractère non paramétrique évolue en fonction des conflits de répartition des revenus. Ce type de modèle permet ainsi de conceptualiser ce cycle de croissance. Enfin, la mise d'analyser l'économie du Brésil. Tipo: Tese

Produtividade da indústria alagoana no Nordeste, indutores de crescimento e competitividade setorial das mesorregiões de Alagoas: 2000 - 2014

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Título: Produtividade da indústria alagoana no Nordeste, indutores de crescimento e competitividade setorial das mesorregiões de Alagoas: 2000 - 2014 Autor(es): Wanderley, Livio Andrade Abstract: Efetuou-se uma síntese histórica da integração econômica nacional com foco no Nordeste e da formação econômica de Alagoas. Em seguida, foram feitos estudos de diagnósticos da indústria do Estado através do modelo Shift and Share Analysis, segundo duas referências espaciais e estudos tipo, cross-regions-time. Inicialmente, fez-se uma análise do Estado em relação a região Nordeste nos intervalos de 2000 e 2007 e 2007 e 2013, utilizando-se a versão de Fagerberg tendo como base a produtividade média do trabalho. Em seu resultado, possibilitou-se efetuar, além das análises dos efeitos alocação, estrutural e tecnológico, um rank de atividades econômicas quanto aos dinamismos. Na segunda análise, adotou-se como referência espacial o estado de Alagoas e as suas escalas regionais, através de suas três mesorregiões para os intervalos de 2000 e 2007 e 2007 e 2014. Neste estudo foi aplicado a versão de Esteban-Maquillas, fazendo-se uso como variável base o emprego formal. Como resultado, verificaram-se indicativos de atividades econômicas dinâmicas e não dinâmicas, os perfis de (des) integração da atividade com o Estado, as (des) vantagens competitivas regionalmente, além da realização de um rank econômico das indústrias e de seus setores de atividades da economia alagoana.; A historical synthesis of national economic integration focused on the Northeast and the economic formation of Alagoas was carried out. Then, the state industry diagnostics were done using the Shift and Share Analysis model, according to two spatial references and type studies, cross-regions-time. Initially, the State was analyzed in relation to the Northeast region in the intervals of 2000 and 2007 and 2007 and 2013, using the Fagerberg version based on average labor productivity. In its result, it was possible to carry out, besides the analysis of the effects, structural and technological allocation, a rank of economic activities regarding the dynamisms. In the second analysis, the state of Alagoas and its regional scales were adopted as spatial reference, through its three mesoregions for the intervals of 2000 and 2007 and 2007 and 2014. In this study, the Esteban-Maquillas version was applied, formal employment is used as the base variable. As a result, there were indicatives of dynamic and non-dynamic economic activities, the profiles of (de) integrating the activity with the State, the regional (dis) competitive advantages, and the achievement of an economic rank of industries and their sectors of activities of the Alagoan economy. Tipo: Tese